The Predictablility of Fan Awards Nominations
Several weeks ago, I promised an analysis of your guesses about who would get top 10 nominations in the Singing News Fan Awards. Examining the guesses, I did notice several interesting things.
- The most accurate guess (Toshiba) averaged 7.45 correct guesses per category. Interestingly enough, the least accurate was surprisingly high, too, at 6.05. The accuracy of the nine entries, in posting order, were 7.45, 7.3, 7.2, 7.05 (me), 7.3, 6.05, 6.55, 6.55, and 6.8. The average accuracy was just under 7 per category (6.92). Probably just about anyone who follows the industry closely can guess, on average, over half the nominees in each category. I was also surprised that all the guesses were within a 15% (1.5 guesses/category range), with most being within a 10% range (6.5-7.5).
- The most predictable category seems to be bass. Donna and I both guessed all ten nominees correctly, and all(!) the other posters correctly guessed nine of the ten, for an average of 9.22 correct guesses.
- The top ten most accurately guessed categories were Bass (9.22 average correct guesses), Male Quartet (8.67), Tenor (8.33), Lead (8.11), Trio (8.11), Mixed Group (7.78), Alto (7.78), Album (7.67), Baritone (7.56), and Female Singer (7.56).
- The five least accurately guessed categories were Horizon Individual (2.33), Soloist (5.11), Horizon Group (5.22), Soprano (5.78), and Song (5.78). Of course, with song, “I Can Pray” being disqualified took just about everyone’s guess down 1 point.
- Remarkable guesses: Donna and I guessed all 10 bass singers correctly, Seaton got a perfect score in the tenor category, and Donna also guessed all 10 male quartets correctly. (Not bad for a trio fan–a category in which she didn’t do too badly, either, guessing eight.)
It was a fascinating project, and thanks to all who provided guesses for the analysis.
Comment by Donna (April 2, 2008, 8:52 am)
Verrrrry interesting! But, in all honesty, the people who post on your blog are obviously “educated consumers.” That accounts for the very high percentage of correct guesses across the board! I think it is hilarious that I got 10 out of 10 guesses correct for bass (my least favorite part) and that this trio-girl got 10 out of 10 for the quartets and only 8 of 10 for the trios!!!!
Comment by Donna (April 2, 2008, 9:11 am)
When are we going to do Round 2 guesses?
Comment by Daniel J. Mount (April 2, 2008, 9:13 am)
On the Round 2 guesses–soon, I suppose. I’ll post on that on some day in the near future when I don’t have another story to run.
Comment by Obadiah Neasham (April 2, 2008, 11:23 pm)
Score for you Daniel!
I did better than I though I was going to!
Comment by Daniel J. Mount (April 3, 2008, 6:31 am)
Thanks! Yes, everyone did well. Even the lowest guesses averaged over 60% right!
Comment by Seaton (April 3, 2008, 7:16 am)
Wow, I got all ten tenor singer nominees correct and like Donna with the bass, that is not even my favorite vocal in a quartet. Go figure…